There is a popular notion that government can save us from recession and stimulate the economy by pouring in more money and encouraging people to spend more. This is said to have been modeled using economic theories.
Let us understand this idea in a simpler setting...a family. Just for example,think of yourself as a micro-government (just a single person) running your family. In course of time, your irresponsible family members keep borrowing money to increase their standard of living and this improves the standard of living of the whole family. Borrowing (or leveraging) continues for a while, but one fine day you realize that the total family debt is out of control and you need to start paying back. Your lenders see that your family has accumulated too much debt and they stop lending money to you (government) and your family members.
What is the first thing you want to do?...Stop your family members from borrowing...even if you don't, the money lenders will stop lending eventually.
Yes, of course this will reduce the standard of living of the whole family. Your family had enjoyed an artificial high standard of living for a long period of time and will have to face the consequences for over-spending. For the next few years you family will be forced to spend less and save more.
In analogy if you scale up the family to a nation, this period of time, when spending reduces and savings increases, will be called a recession or a depression.
Recession is natural and will help bring you back to equilibrium.
Are there ways your family can get out of this recession??...Let us examine.
1) If the people who lent the money write-off the debt then your family can be saved from a severe recession (you will still face recession since you cannot borrow and continue their original standard of living).
At the national level this means China, Russia, Japan, and Middle-east write-off US debt. NO WAY THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN!
2) Any other way you can think off would probably be illegal or immoral...
RECESSION IS INEVITABLE. JUST FACE IT!
The key point...Can you save yourself from recession by asking your family members to spend more??? That is beyond logic/rationality.
I am not an economist, but If any economic theory suggests this, it is most probably wrong and the economists who understood the theory are also wrong.
The notion of solving the problem of over-spending by more spending is ridiculous.
Beware!! This is the option US government has chosen in the name of "stimulus".
Stimulus will only make the problems worse. It will postpone the inevitable recession, but will have more severe consequences.
The other option the US government has, and at the family level you don't have, is printing money (Quantitative Easing) to pay off the debt.
If you increase the money supply the cost of every commodity will go up (INFLATION - exactly what is starting to happen now).
How can this save us from recession??
The only reason government takes such steps would be to postpone the recession so that they can let the next president and next set of elected officials to handle it.
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